Res. The median and the 10th/90th percentiles of maximum tsunami wave height profiles along the coastal line of Padang are shown in Figure 10B. Solid Earth. (2016) generated heterogeneous earthquake slips to assess tsunami hazard in Mentawai Islands based on the random slip modeling proposed by Gallovič and Brokešová (2004). Figure 5. Stretching for more than 3000 miles from west to east, the entire country - except for the island of Borneo - is defined by a plate boundary. Hurricane Harvey's most destructive force. The 19 source models of the past Sunda subduction earthquakes are used to determine the rupture areas for the future megathrust tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Mentawai segment (Table 1). J. Earthq. Since 2004, much of the Sunda megathrust between the northern Andaman Islands and Enggano Island, a distance of more than 2,000 km, has ruptured in a series of large subduction zone earthquakes - most rupturing the plate boundary south of Banda Aceh. The tsunami wave profiles at three recording points produced from the 100 stochastic source models for the Mw 9.0 scenario generated without considering the uncertainty of the scaling relationships (Figure 7) are shown in the middle panels of Figures 9B–D, whereas similar results obtained based on the Muhari et al. J. If you feel a strong earthquake lasting 30 seconds or more and you can’t stand properly, you must evacuate — but don’t take your vehicles; just walk. Tsunami wave propagation is then evaluated by solving non-linear shallow water equations with run-up (Goto et al., 1997). Large variations in tsunami wave heights are observed at those three points with the maximum tsunami height of 15 m. From the medians of the tsunami waveforms at three recording points, consistent tsunami waveforms compared to the Muhari et al. Specific predictions of the timing and severity of natural disasters are not possible, but Indonesian disaster management agencies are making substantial progress in providing warnings of potentially dangerous events. (2010) are used as a benchmark to demonstrate the tsunami simulation results. (2010) that predicted the tsunami hazard in Padang areas using the earthquake source models developed from the slip accumulation. J. Geophys. Throw a dart anywhere in the vicinity of the 18,000 islands that make up the Indonesian Archipelago, and it will almost certainly land close to more than one active volcano, and near areas severely impacted by past earthquakes and tsunamis, as well as dozens of fires, floods, tornadoes and landslides, which all routinely disrupt this country’s lush beauty. (F) Mw 9.0 scenario considering uncertainty. Many seismologists expect that the region’s next great earthquake and tsunami will likely happen in the Mentawai Gap, a portion of the megathrust about 90 kilometers west of central Sumatra. (2010). doi:10.1785/0220140077, McCloskey, J., Antonioli, A., Piatanesi, A., Sieh, K., Steacy, S., Nalbant, S., et al. The earthquake source parameters from the finite-fault models of the past Sunda subduction are further evaluated to determine the applicability of the global scaling relationships for the Mentawai-Sunda subduction zone. The GEBCO2014 dataset is adopted for bathymetry data with the resolution of 30 arc-sec (~900 m). (2007). “We call this the ‘working together spirit.’ This means the disaster belongs to us. (2006). The raw simulated data are shown with gray color and the median and 10th/90th percentiles of the simulated tsunami waveforms are illustrated with red line and blue line, respectively. Scaling relationships of the earthquake source parameters (Goda et al., 2016). And, by virtue of the archipelago’s equatorial location and its array of physiographically diverse islands, different parts of the country are subjected to a wide variety of weather, from drenching monsoon rains to prolonged dry spells. First, earthquake source parameters, i.e., W, L, Da, Dm, λ, Az, Ax, and H, are generated using the prediction models (Tables 2 and 3). (D) Mw 8.75 scenario considering uncertainty. Earth Planet Sp. Indonesians also reported 19 regional droughts, two volcanic eruptions — at Mount Sinabung on Sumatra and Mount Agung on Bali — and 11 tsunamis. The tsunami hazard in Padang was further evaluated using the tsunami wave profiles and maximum tsunami wave height data based on 600 stochastic tsunami simulations. Figure 8. The past seismicity in the Mentawai segment indicates that there were two major tsunamigenic events occurred in 1797 and 1833 (Mw ~8.8) that affected the coastal areas of Padang and Bengkulu. (2016) for generating stochastic source models for the future tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Mentawai segment of the Sunda subduction zone can be justified. Figure 10. Res. Soc. The earthquake was felt as far away as the Malay peninsula and the eastern part of Java. (A) Mw 8.5 scenario without considering uncertainty. “We now tell our people that if the earthquake happens [and is] bigger than magnitude 7 … the authorities will make an announcement about a tsunami potential. Updated Result of the Apr 6, 2010 Northern Sumatra Earthquake. (B) Nested grid system for tsunami simulation in Padang. For example, the generated values of Da and Dm for the Mw 9.0 scenario are 8 and 30 m, respectively, while the spatial slip distribution and location of the fault rupture within the overall source zone are varied. doi:10.1126/science.1122602, Chlieh, M., Avouac, J. P., Sieh, K., Natawidjaja, D. H., and Galetzka, J. Bull. For stochastic source modeling and Monte Carlo simulation, the Mentawai source zone is discretized into 10 km by 10 km sub-faults. Haz. Most famous among them, perhaps, are Tambora in West Nusa Tenggara and Krakatoa, situated between Sumatra and Java, which erupted catastrophically in 1815 and 1883, respectively. Therefore, the asperity zone of the future megathrust earthquake for tsunami hazard assessment in Padang is assumed to follow the asperity areas of the 1797 event (see Figure 6A). |, Tsunami Potential of the Mentawawi-Sunda Megathrust Zone, Earthquake Source Parameters for Sumatra Earthquakes, United States Geological Survey (USGS), 2015, http://www.gebco.net/data_and_products/gridded_bathymetry_data/, http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eq_depot/2004/eq_041226/neic_slav_ff.html, http://www.tectonics.caltech.edu/slip_history/2005_sumatra/sumatra.html, http://www.geol.ucsb.edu/faculty/ji/big_earthquakes/2007/09/sumatra_seismic.html, http://www.geol.ucsb.edu/faculty/ji/big_earthquakes/2005/03/smooth/nias.html, http://www.tectonics.caltech.edu/slip_history/2008_n_sumatra/simeulue.html, http://www.tectonics.caltech.edu/slip_history/2007_c_sumatra/c-sumatra.html, http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/, Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). Geophys. “Much of the loss stemming from the great Aceh-Andaman earthquake and tsunami of 2004 could have been avoided,” Sieh wrote in a 2007 Journal of Earthquake and Tsunami paper. The tsunami simulation results including the simulated tsunami wave height profiles and maximum tsunami heights along the coastal line are presented in this section by considering three magnitude scenarios (Mw 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0) and two cases ignoring and incorporating the uncertainty of the scaling relationships. In the Teluk Bayur region (P3), the second and third waves increase drastically with the increasing magnitude. The effective dimension analysis is carried out to calculate the width, length, mean slip, and maximum slip, while the Box–Cox analysis is used to characterize the probability distribution of the slip values. doi:10.1029/JB092iB01p00421, Newman, A. V., Hayes, G., Wei, Y., and Convers, J. Major eruptions in 2017, and again this past February, chased residents from the mountain, and Indonesia’s National Disaster Management Authority, known as BNPB (Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana), determined that all residents had to be resettled permanently due to the volcano’s volatility. Okada, Y. (E) Mw 9.0 scenario without considering uncertainty. In 2017, Indonesians reported 787 floods, 716 tornadoes, 614 landslides, and 96 forest and ground fires (burning peat lands and rainforests to make room for large palm oil plantations and smaller farms is a popular practice, especially in Sumatra). It is critically important to capture the most devastating effect that may occur in the target region. The estimated median of the simulated tsunami wave profiles produced from stochastic tsunami simulation is acceptable in comparison to the results from Muhari et al. The 1861 Sumatra earthquake occurred on February 16 and was the last in a sequences of earthquakes that ruptured adjacent parts of the Sumatran segment of the Sunda megathrust. Rupture kinematics of the 2005, Mw 8.6, Nias-Simeulue earthquake from the joint inversion of seismic and geodetic data. This megathrust fault is created by the Australia plate subducting below the Sunda plate in the Indian Ocean . With a little imagination, it’s not hard to see a natural hazard map of Indonesia as a dartboard with many bull’s-eyes. However, many chose to remain behind or return home while the eruption was still going on, and 350 people died. The North-West extension of 160 km beyond the rupture of the 1833 event was likely to stop at 0.5°S. With the plain topographic features and high population density in urban areas, Padang will face significant economic and social losses due to the future tsunamigenic event in the Mentawai segment of the Sunda subduction zone. This research array consists of nearly five dozen satellite-linked GPS stations on Sumatra and on outlying islands, says EOS technical director Paramesh Banerjee. Finally, the key conclusions of this work are drawn. J. Geophys. Slab1.0: a three-dimensional model of global subduction zone geometries. Geochem. It caused a devastating tsunami which led to several thousand fatalities. BNPB’s companion agency, BMKG, which is in charge of all-island earthquake and tsunami warnings, relies on a separate warning system, known as InaTEWS (Indonesia Tsunami Early Warning System), which communicates some data to InAWARE but operates as a separate warning system for seismic hazards only. One of the big problems was a complete lack of data coming from 22 ocean buoys deployed between 2006 and 2010 west of Sumatra by a team of German and Indonesian scientists to detect oncoming tsunamis. doi:10.1029/96GL00736, United States Geological Survey (USGS). Others, meanwhile, have used the buoys to anchor their boats, damaging the buoys and disrupting their data transmission. (2016). First, the effective dimension analysis is carried out. The Sunda Megathrust remains the most hazardous fault in the Indonesian archipelago. Tsunamis were observed along the western coast of Sumatra extending from Pariaman to Bengkulu due to this event. “Similar future losses from earthquakes and tsunamis in South and Southeast Asia could, in theory, be substantially reduced.” Sieh wrote that Indonesia can improve its survival rates in a future disaster by focusing now on scientific discovery, public education about hazards, emergency preparedness, and the design and construction of resilient coastal communities. Moreover, those previous investigations for the Mentawai-Sunda subduction zone adopted the global empirical scaling relationships [e.g., Mai and Beroza (2002), Gallovič and Brokešová (2004), and Aydan (2008)] to generate only either deterministic fault geometry parameters (width and length) or slip distribution parameters without considering the uncertainty and relationships among earthquake source parameters. Emmett, who holds a doctorate in journalism and public communication, is an environmental and science journalist specializing in coverage of social and scientific issues in Asia and Africa. Subduction zone megathrust earthquakes, the most powerful earthquakes in the world, can produce tsunamis through a variety of structures that are missed by simple models. Acad. The tsunami simulation results for the other scenarios are then discussed to evaluate the tsunami hazard potential in Padang areas. The results highlight the influence of the uncertainty of the scaling relationships on tsunami simulation results and provide a greater range of tsunamigenic scenarios produced from the stochastic tsunami simulation. Res. Preliminary Result 02/20/2008 (Mw 7.4), Simeulue Earthquake, Indonesia. The interpolated grid-based slip distribution is then tapered using a Hanning window to control the edges of the rupture plane so that no significant slips occur along the rupture plane edges. Heterogeneous coupling of the Sumatran megathrust constrained by geodetic and paleogeodetic measurements. are a primary hazard of the Sunda megathrust. The high-tech installation is known as InAWARE 6, a variant of DisasterAWARE, a multihazard warning and risk assessment system created at the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) in Hawaii with support from the U.S. Agency for International Development. Preliminary Result 09/12/2007 (Mw 7.9), Central Sumatra Earthquake. Rupture process of the 2010 Mw7.8 Mentawai tsunami earthquake from joint inversion of near-field hr-GPS and teleseismic body wave recordings constrained by tsunami observations. The oceanic and continental plates along the Sunda Megathrust Fault separated in 2004, causing a huge earthquake. Tsunami wave profiles at the Purus station (P2). On April 1, 2007, a M8.1 interplate megathrust earthquake occurred at the western end of the trench, generating a … Numerical Method of Tsunami Simulation with the Leap-Frog Scheme. (C) Mw 8.75 scenario without considering uncertainty. J. Seismol. Finally, Az and Ax are obtained by minimizing the norm between the along-dip/along-strike wavenumber spectrum and the analytical von Kármán model (Mai and Beroza, 2002) calculated using Eq. Third, Fourier spectral analysis is carried out to calculate spatial heterogeneity parameters of the slip, i.e., Ax, Az, and H. The Hurst number is used to characterize spectral decay as a function of wavenumber. J. Geophys. “Because of the technical changes in volcanic science, we have had fewer victims in the past 20 years,” says Devy Kamil Syahbana, a field specialist with the Indonesian Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi Badan) who monitors Mount Agung on Bali. But whether Indonesia is adequately prepared today — technologically and in terms of public awareness and preparedness — remains an open question. doi:10.1785/0120050609, Borrero, J. C., Sieh, K., Chlieh, M., and Synolakis, C. E. (2006). In addition, a 700-year sea-level change recorded in the corals of the Mentawai segment implies that the recurrence time of the major earthquakes, i.e., the sequence of the 1797 and 1833 earthquakes, is ~200 years (Sieh et al., 2008). In Figure 4, the source parameters for the model 19 by Muhari et al. Res. (B) Mw 8.5 scenario considering uncertainty. (D) Mw 8.75 scenario considering uncertainty. In total, 600 source models are generated to assess the uncertainty of tsunami wave characteristics and maximum tsunami wave height profiles along coastal line of Padang. In the stochastic tsunami simulation, the effect of incorporating and neglecting the prediction errors of earthquake source parameters is investigated. Res. To achieve the target mean slip Da and to avoid very large slip values exceeding the target maximum slip Dm, the transformed slip distribution is further adjusted. “After 2004, we struggled to get a program of training going for the first two years, and at one point in 2005, the Padang government asked us to stop because they thought we were frightening the tourists,” she says. Figures 11–13 show the tsunami waveform results based on the stochastic source models for three scenario magnitudes, i.e., Mw 8.5, Mw 8.75, and Mw 9.0, both including and excluding the uncertainty of the scaling relationships recorded in Tabing, Purus, and Teluk Bayur stations, respectively. Most people don't associate the US Pacific Northwest with earthquakes, but maybe they should. Another important characteristic illustrated from the tsunami wave profiles for all scenarios is the feature of secondary waves (second and third waves) which are important to design an evacuation plan for the areas of interest. It is also deployed in Thailand, Vietnam and Nepal. While the temblor set off alarms in several different international tsunami warning systems, including Indonesia’s own, both local disaster specialists in Sumatra and national specialists in Jakarta were confronted with conflicting reports. Nat. A chain of active volcanoes — including Sinabung and Krakatoa among others — traces this plate boundary. the results show that for the future major earthquakes in the Sunda megathrust, the maximum tsunami wave height in Padang areas can reach 20 m and, therefore, signifi-cant damage and loss may be anticipated in this region. These data show that the maximum tsunami wave height in Padang can reach 20 m in urban areas (Tabing–Purus) where many important public facilities exist (e.g., school, hospital, and gas station). Within 15 minutes, information from an accelerometer network helps the agency create a “shake map,” at which point a second warning may be issued, and confirming messages exchanged with other disaster agencies. (B–E) Stochastic source models for the future tsunamigenic earthquake scenario without considering the uncertainty of the scaling relationships. Gusman, A. R., Tanioka, Y., Kobayashi, T., Latief, H., and Pandoe, W. (2010). The nested grid systems of bathymetry and DEM having four resolutions are developed to assess the tsunami hazard in Padang due to the future tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Mentawai segment. model with the maximum tsunami height of about 5 m. In addition, the tsunami arrival time to the coastal areas of Padang based on the median simulation results and Muhari et al. All of these buoys reportedly failed to work properly during the March 2016 incident. doi:10.1029/2005JB004025, Newcomb, K. R., and McCan, W. R. (1987). Bull. (2008). Res. The strike and dip angles of these models are typically in the range of 296° to 326° and 7° to 19°, respectively. Natl. The length and width of the Mentawai source zone are 920 and 250 km, respectively. It's home to the 600-mile (1,000-km) Cascadia megathrust fault, … The median of the tsunami waveforms shows that the tsunami wave height increases by a factor of 2 for the increasing magnitude by 0.25 U. Additionally, the tsunami hazard in Padang areas can also be assessed from the maximum tsunami wave height along the coastal line of Padang areas (see Figure 10). Subsequently, the calculated earthquake source parameters of the past Sunda subduction earthquake are evaluated against the global scaling relationships developed by Goda et al. The motivation to analyze the effective dimensions of the finite-fault models is because some of the finite-fault models have insignificant portions of slip located along the edges. That’s when she discovered her calling. “Initial warnings are sent via internet, radio, cellphone SMS and TV,” she says. Moreover, the past tsunami hazard assessment studies in several important cities along the western coast of Sumatra, i.e., Padang, Painan, and Bengkulu, were performed using deterministic earthquake scenario approaches only (Borrero et al., 2006; Li et al., 2012). Source parameters of the great Sumatran megathrust earthquakes of 1797 and 1833 inferred from coral microatolls. Coseismic slip distributions of the 26 December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman and 28 March 2005 Nias earthquakes from GPS static offsets. And on some islands, local officials often ignore warnings from disaster agencies, thinking the government is too often “crying wolf.”. Solid Earth. © 2008-2021. A summary of the stochastic tsunami simulation used in this study is then presented, and the stochastic source models for the Mentawai-Sunda megathrust are further developed. (D) Maximum tsunami wave height profile along the coastal line by incorporating uncertainty. Therefore, it is important to apply the stochastic tsunami simulation method to assess the tsunami hazard in Padang probabilistically due to the future megathrust earthquakes in the Mentawai segment of the Sunda subduction zone. “You can’t predict earthquakes, and that hasn’t changed.”. Sci. The stochastic earthquake source models for the future tsunamigenic earthquake in the Mentawai segment of the Sunda subduction zone have been successfully developed and further used in stochastic tsunami simulation. 118, 5372–5390. When the islanders saw the ocean receding, just before the giant tsunami waves came crashing in, they knew to run for higher ground. 11, 3107–3123. (2006). This study assesses the tsunami hazard potential in Padang, Indonesia probabilistically using a novel stochastic tsunami simulation method. The 25 October 2010 Mentawai tsunami earthquake, from real-time discriminants, finite-fault rupture, and tsunami excitation. A large earthquake in 2007 (Mw 8.4) that ruptured the Sunda megathrust near the 1833 rupture area was significantly smaller than the accumulated slip since the twin events of the 1797 and 1833 earthquakes (McCloskey et al., 2005; Nalbant et al., 2005). J. Geophys. (2016), those studies implemented uniform slip models that oversimplify the earthquake source characteristics and considered a limited number of scenarios for future tsunamigenic events. Dewi tells people in Padang that the best way to avoid disaster is to recognize the signs for themselves — and as quickly as possible — because improved monitoring technology and communication won’t necessarily help if a massive earthquake happens along a megathrust and forms a tsunami close to the Indonesian islands. The interseismic coupling and coseismic slip modeling based on the paleogeodetic study confirm that the asperities in the Mentawai segment must be multiple. Using the stochastic tsunami simulation approach, the worst scenario (Mw > 9.0 at different percentile levels) can be considered to predict the future tsunamigenic earthquake impact, and therefore, a probabilistic approach is recommended to be implemented for preparing a better tsunami mitigation system for the future event. Griffin et al. Lett. The simulated tsunami wave profiles at three recording points are shown in the bottom panels of Figures 9B–D. (2007). Preliminary Result 05/03/28 (Mw 8.7), Sumatra Earthquake. The simulated tsunami wave profiles from the Mw 9.0 scenario were compared with the results from Muhari et al. A wide range of rupture scenarios is essential for evaluating the earthquake and tsunami risk potential in coastal areas to capture worst (extreme) cases for emergency response preparedness and risk mitigation actions. doi:10.1029/2010JB007565, Hayes, G. P. (2010a). Available from: http://www.geol.ucsb.edu/faculty/ji/big_earthquakes/2005/03/smooth/nias.html, Sieh, K., and Natawidjaja, D. H. (2000). Indonesian islands are very close to earthquake sources like the Sunda Megathrust, the 5,500-kilometer-long subduction zone off Sumatra and Java that was the source of the cataclysmic 2004 earthquake and tsunami. The tsunami heights reaching 3–4 m were recorded near Padang. This study implements the stochastic tsunami simulation to assess the tsunami hazard in Padang areas. The Box–Cox parameter (λ) is then obtained based on the value that achieves the maximum linear correlation coefficient (see Figure 3B). A future megathrust earthquake in the Mentawai segment may rupture similar to the scenarios of either the 1797 event or the 1833 event. For validation purposes, the simulated tsunami wave profiles for the Mw 9.0 scenario are used to compare with the results by Muhari et al. The insignificant portions of earthquake slip are removed in two steps. Result of the Oct 25, 2010 Mw 7.7 Southern Sumatra Earthquake. Although seismologists and disaster mitigation authorities in the country have hoped to procure new technology to more quickly detect incipient threats, an array of nontechnical factors impedes progress. doi:10.1029/2011JB008524, Hayes, G. P., Wald, D. J., and Keranen, K. (2009). (A) Mw 8.5 scenario without considering uncertainty. The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. “Technically, the buoys did provide data, but they were placed too close to the potential tsunami sources,” he says. Source scaling properties from finite-fault-rupture models. source model. (A) Effective dimension analysis. Earth Syst. (2008). “The children I saw afterward weren’t traumatized; they knew what to do and they seemed happy, even though they saw their houses disappear,” Dewi recalls. When the buoys were first deployed, “they didn’t work very well,” says Jörn Behrens, a professor of mathematics at the University of Hamburg in Germany who was involved with the German-Indonesian tsunami warning system from 2006 to 2010. Moreover, in some circumstances, individuals have motivations that — knowingly or not — are at odds with monitoring efforts. The comparison results show that the Muhari et al. Tsunami inundation modeling for western Sumatra. Preliminary Result of the Sep 12, 2007 Mw 7.9 Kepulauan Earthquake. Available at: http://www.tectonics.caltech.edu/slip_history/2005_sumatra/sumatra.html, Ji, C. (2007). The Hurst number is then calculated after converting from the fractal dimension (i.e., H = 3 − Df). Seismol. In generating the stochastic source models, a certain amount of slip must be concentrated within the target region. Extensive tsunami simulation for the future tsunamigenic earthquakes is conducted by developing a large number of stochastic earthquake slip models for different magnitude ranges. (2011). Overall, 3.4 million people were displaced that year by these natural disasters. D., and Chica-Olmo, M., and Ji, C. ( 2002 were... Variation of tsunami inundation footprints considering stochastic scenarios based on a 2 single rupture model: application to the transformation! W and L, respectively by generating multiple source models need to be there in five to seven ”! 4, the key conclusions of this tectonic activity, the buoys provide... Models need to be compared with the required slip concentration range Carlo,. Government is too often “ crying wolf. ” to seven minutes. ” Mori! From this event is only a half of the Creative Commons Attribution License CC. G. C. ( 2005 ) terms of the Sumatra subduction zone: //www.tectonics.caltech.edu/slip_history/2008_n_sumatra/simeulue.html, Sladen A.. The Mw 9.0 earthquake scenario and by performing tsunami forward modeling, digital model... Assessing tsunami impact on highly populated areas highly populated areas measured up to 8 and were tsunamigenic! Zone is first discussed combination of magnitude scenario and uncertainty consideration ( 600 cases total! Wald, D., and Natawidjaja, D., and Ji, C., and Thingbaijam sunda megathrust earthquakes R.. 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And bathymetry data with the resolution of 30 arc-sec ( ~30 m ) and Beroza ( 2002 ) crustal! Relationships were further used to generate the earthquake source parameters of the was! Database of finite source rupture models randomly located within the target region height contours are recorded investigate! The least squares fitting area that contains subduction zones that create megathrust earthquakes of magnitudes to!, Wei, Y., Shuto, N., and Konca, A..! Up 20 feet and produced a destructive tsunami at Padang and nearby assessment. Subduction zone the slip distribution with realistic positive skewness ( Goda et al. 1997! Are discussed Mw 8.5 scenario without considering uncertainty the south-eastern boundary of the Mentawai segment the! Editor to Smithsonian Air & Space magazine the future tsunamigenic earthquakes was conducted by developing a large number stochastic! The coast of Sumatra doi:10.1029/2010jb007565, Hayes, G. P. ( 2010b ) 2007 Bengkulu earthquake event stochastic!